Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
Click to Download
Link dead/Question/Request?
Please contact at bonanotes.com@gmail.com
This free ebook is meant only for those who want to broaden their knowledge, but due to limited economic condition, cannot afford to buy on official selling channels (bookstores, Amazon, etc.). If you have money, please buy it to support the author, thank you!
© 2019 The Bona Notes. All rights reserved
Reviews
There are no reviews yet.